Let’s look at 2021. Yes, 2020 has been and continues to be a dumpster fire.
If you are in the middle of a job search, considering a career change or job change or fear that you may soon be unemployed due to uncertainty in your current position, then it is good to know what the tea leaves might be saying.
After all, many lessons can be learned from the recovery after the 2008 financial collapse, and I will be drawing some conclusions based on my observations and experiences from that time period. I am also presenting this from a standpoint of the labor market in the United States as that is where I live. However, many of these same experiences may apply to other countries as well.
– The job market will be stronger in 2021.
This is probably the easiest guess, if only because the bar isn’t that high to begin with. I say this knowing that we have survived the last 10 months with very weakened restaurant, hospitality, travel, entertainment, sports and music industries (to name a few).
Think about going to a concert, which is a rarity if not a near impossibility in 2020. There are ticket-takers, ushers, food service workers, marketing personnel, venue operators, bartenders, food / drink suppliers / distributers, promoters, musicians, sound technicians, pyrotechnics, costume designers, parking lot attendents, light technicians, stage hands, prop personnel, camera people and the coke dealer in the green room backstage (and I am sure I a forgetting a few).
All of these jobs disappeared and all of these folks have had to find other jobs in other areas, but as this virus abates, all of these jobs are going to come back. The music scene will come back and it will need experienced and non-experienced personnel.
Some industries will not have enough experienced personnel
In 2008, the industry I worked in, construction took a huge hit. Unemployment amongst skilled tradespeople soared. Many people left the industry altogether, throwing their hands after sitting jobless for months, said “fuck this!” and left the industry altogether. Many retrained for jobs in other industries or went back to school or found jobs in other areas. Quite a few have also never recovered, it should also be noted.
As the construction market came back and boomed in the mid 2010’s, it was not uncommon to hear about labor shortages. Many baby-boomers who had been tradespeople their entire life aged out, or flat out retired and took their pensions after riding the 2008 wave (again, “fuck this!”). With that, you had a huge outpouring of foremen and supervisors who had a wealth of knowledge that was seemingly gone forever. Skills and expertise that could not be taught to new apprentices and journeymen in their respective trades were gone for good.
On top of that there is an emphasis particularly in the United States that tends to tell people that the only the way to succeed is with a college education. Meanwhile, apprenticeship programs and trade training programs about, especially at the community college level.
So with respect to the construction industry, which, from a labor market standpoint tends to lag a bit behind the rest of the economy due to when budgets are allocated and construction is financed, could see long term career and money making potential as more people in the industry say “fuck this!” The same could be said for all of the other industries I mentioned above. How many Hotel Night Auditors or Restaurant Managers or Sound Technicians or Convention Center Sales Managers left for greener pastures in the last year? How many won’t come back? How many will flood the job market initially as things do come back? I think over the longer term (1-2 years), there will be labor shortages in these markets. That is assuming that those who have the skills have the wherewithall to be able to survive the downturn in these areas.
Neutral: Remote work is probably not going to go away When the pandemic started, I turned to my wife and told her, “this thing is going to have everyone show their true colors. This country is going to lift up the rug and see all the nasties that have been swept under it for years. One of those is the need for people to sit in traffic for hours and go into an office building for 8-10 hours a day. So many jobs can be done remotely. This is a positive for workers, as the trends with millenials in the workplace has been for a better work / life balance anyway. For single parents or caregivers for family members, this could be a tremendous positive with more flexibility.
Also, for parents, they will have the opporutnity to spend more time with their children as they are not having to be on the road for 10-12 hours per week commuting. Spouses may get more quality time together. People will have more time to develop social lives and even give back to their community if they choose. Fewer cars on the road means fewer vehicle emmissions and strain on the already strained traffic system.
However, as shown it is also revealing weaknesses in terms of the bandwith avaialable overall countrywide. Many rural areas are horribly underserviced with respect to internet speeds. Also, if people can do their jobs from anywhere, then probably a ton of people are going to move out of California. This means an even bigger influx of expatriated Californians to Western States which has created infaltionary and infrastructure issues in places like Boise and Denver, for example.
Finally, it is speculated that many people may move out of higher density urban areas for the suburbs. After decades of returning to downtown, what is going to happen with more remote workers? Could the commercial real estate market collapse? Will the urban resdential real estate market follow? Will another housing boom occur in the suburbs? The ramifications will take years to develop, but this could change the demographics of American cities for decades to come.
You may be required to get a vaccine in order to work for some companies
Many experts predict that some sort of verification may be required as to showing vaccination to do things like attend sport events and concerts. There have already been movements to require vaccinations for children to attend school in recent years with whooping cough and measles outbreaks. Could employers require employees to have proof of vaccination to work?
This thing is, employment is essentially an “at-will” contract between an organization and an employee, who’s terms are up for negotiation. I think for health care workers we will see a requirement. It will be interesting to see how this branches out to other “essential” services like food services or mass transportation.
H1N1 Visas may be expedited in the Health Care field It has become more clear and has been projected for years that there is a shortage of health care workers in the United States. As more baby boomers age out, it has also been postulated that there will not be enough health care workers to care for a disproporionately aging population.
With the pandemic, there is even a greater need for medical professionals. In order to make up for this shortfall, health care organizations may decide to sponsor foreign nationals to work on H1N1 working VISAs. With a more pro-immigration Presidential Administration incoming in January, 2021, this is an even greater possibility.
Onerous Certifications and regulations may disappear I enjoy my drink, but I hate going to the store. So, I like getting groceries delivered. The pandemic has changed this. One of the good things to come out of the pandemic is booze delivery that did not exist before. This was evidence of onerous overregulation that wasn’t really serving anybody or doing any good. It has created opportunities in the gig economy for sure.
Maybe a lot of the over the top certifications and needless hoops that people have to go through to get hired will disappear. The virus has made certain essential services scramble to hire people quickly and do away with the superflous bullshit. Anything that cuts back on needless buereacracy is a good thing.
Educational opportunities may abound for the next few years
A lot of students are slow to go back to onsite learning. There will be an influx for sure, but Universities in particular have taken a huge hit. They are going to be doing a lot to entice students. Many schools are offerring in state tuition to out of state students amongst other discounts for example. Colleges are even allowing parents and students to negotiate differente terms to secure them as students. Expect this at least in the short term to continue.
Inflation is a thing
Finally, we have seen inflation creep up the last few months. The Fed has been reluctant to raise interest rates in fear of further harming the economy. However, by not doing so, costs with respect to food, utilities and housing continue to skyrocket. I would not expect any of these to go away anytime soon.
So, basically, 2021 will still be a shitshow. It will just be a different type of shitshow that is hopefully less shitty than 2020. Then again, it would take a shitastic level of shittiness to make any year shittier than 2020. We can certainly all agree when midnight strikes on January 1st and we look back and give 2020 the finger.